2012 Oscar Predictions

Best Picture

The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse

Thoughts:

Don’t let the surprise inclusion of Extremely Loud & Incredibly Pretentious fool you; this year’s Best Picture race comes down to two films: The Artist and The Descendants. The Artist is the heavy favorite but faces stiff competition from the George Clooney camp. Both films are terrific pieces of work but The Artist holds the upper hand with its surprising universal accessibility despite its silent, black-and-white format. This is a typical Oscar film, but it will not be undeserving if declared the winner.

The Predicted Winner: The Artist
The Possible Spoiler: The Descendants
Biggest Snub: Drive

Actor in a Leading Role

Demián Bichir
A Better Life

George Clooney
The Descendants

Jean Dujardin
The Artist

Gary Oldman
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Brad Pitt
Moneyball

Thoughts:
Gary Oldman finally gets the respect he’s deserved for so long with his first Best Actor nod, but his fantastic work in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy won’t be enough to beat out Jean Dujardin of The Artist.

The Predicted Winner: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
The Possible Spoiler: George Clooney, The Descendants
Biggest Snub: Michael Fassbender, Shame

Actor in a Supporting Role

Kenneth Branagh
My Week with Marilyn

Jonah Hill
Moneyball

Nick Nolte
Warrior

Christopher Plummer
Beginners

Max von Sydow
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Thoughts:
It’s nice to see Nick Nolte get recognition for his work in the vastly under-appreciated film Warrior, but Christopher Plummer’s name being called for the Oscar is almost inevitable. The only surprise here is the lack of Albert Brooks in the lineup —which most critics and I agreed was the best supporting work of 2011.

The Predicted Winner: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
The Possible Spoiler: Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Biggest Snub: Albert Brooks, Drive

Actress in a Leading Role

Glenn Close
Albert Nobbs

Viola Davis
The Help

Rooney Mara
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Meryl Streep
The Iron Lady

Michelle Williams
My Week with Marilyn

Thoughts:
It’s almost as if the Academy purposely neglects certain performances just to get people riled up. First it was Fassbender for Best Actor, then Albert Brooks for Best Supporting, and now Tilda Swinton for Best Actress. This is another instance in which the year’s best performance is left in the cold. But that’s not to say that the other nominees aren’t worthy. Viola Davis has been gaining traction since her SAG Award and now she’s set to take down the Queen, Meryl Streep, for Best Actress. She’s the clear front-runner and deservedly so.

The Predicted Winner: Viola Davis, The Help
The Possible Spoiler: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Biggest Snub: Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Actress in a Supporting Role

Bérénice Bejo
The Artist

Jessica Chastain
The Help

Melissa McCarthy
Bridesmaids

Janet McTeer
Albert Nobbs

Octavia Spencer
The Help

Thoughts:
The Help carried one of the best ensembles of the year and a win for Octavia Spencer along with her co-star Viola Davis should solidify that. Spencer has already won a SAG Award and Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actress, which typically foreshadows things to come at the Oscars.

The Predicted Winner: Octavia Spencer, The Help
The Possible Spoiler: Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Biggest Snub: Carey Mulligan, Shame

Animated Feature Film

A Cat in Paris
Alain Gagnol and Jean-Loup Felicioli

Chico & Rita
Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal

Kung Fu Panda 2
Jennifer Yuh Nelson

Puss in Boots
Chris Miller

Rango
Gore Verbinski

Thoughts:
When I saw Rango earlier last year, I told everyone that it was one of the best animated movies I’d ever seen and that it would get nominated for best Animated Feature Film and would likely win. It doesn’t face much competition and should take home the award with ease.

The Predicted Winner: Rango
The Possible Spoiler:  A Cat in Paris
Biggest Snub: The Adventures of Tintin

Directing

The Artist
Michel Hazanavicius

The Descendants
Alexander Payne

Hugo
Martin Scorsese

Midnight in Paris
Woody Allen

The Tree of Life
Terrence Malick

Thoughts:
It’s almost a rule of thumb that whoever wins Best Director will also win Best Picture. This year things could get a little tricky. Although Michel Hazanavicius is the favorite, Martin Scorsese is posing a serious threat and could easily upset The Artist director. Many were skeptical when Scorsese announced that Hugo would be filmed in 3-D but the end product is nothing short of spectacular. Scorsese utilizes the 3-D as a companion piece to the progression of the story rather than a special effects gimmick. This is what happens when you marry technology with a master filmmaker.

The Predicted Winner: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
The Possible Spoiler: Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Biggest Snub: Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive

Documentary Feature

Hell and Back Again
Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner

If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front
Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman

Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky

Pina
Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel

Undefeated
TJ Martin, Dan Lindsay and Richard Middlemas

Thoughts:
For those interested in anything related to dance, Pina is a must see. And it’s the first art-house film shot in 3-D for those fascinated by the format. This is another movie that makes great use of the 3-D technology by immersing the audience and adding depth rather than cheaply throwing things at the screen. The movements of the dance sequences in the third dimension are incredible.

The Predicted Winner: Pina
The Possible Spoiler: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Biggest Snub: Interrupters

Foreign Language Film

Bullhead
Belgium

Footnote
Israel

In Darkness
Poland

Monsieur Lazhar
Canada

A Separation
Iran

Thoughts:
Not only is A Separation the very best in the Foreign Language category, I would even go as far as to say that it’s better than most of the nominees for Best Picture. It’s a captivating drama that is precise and tense in its approach. A Separation is the winner here by a long shot.

The Predicted Winner: A Separation
The Possible Spoiler: In Darkness
Biggest Snub: Miss Bala

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

The Descendants
Screenplay by Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon &
Jim Rash

Hugo
Screenplay by John Logan

The Ides of March
Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov and
Beau Willimon

Moneyball
Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin
Story by Stan Chervin

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Screenplay by Bridget O’Connor & Peter Straughan

Thoughts:
Any screenplay that has Aaron Sorkin’s name attached to it usually entails a nomination followed by a win, but The Descendants will most likely take an easy win with it’s whip smart dialogue.

The Predicted Winner: The Descendants
The Possible Spoiler: Moneyball
Biggest Snub: The Skin I Live In, Pedro Almodovar

Writing (Original Screenplay)

The Artist
Written by Michel Hazanavicius

Bridesmaids
Written by Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig

Margin Call
Written by J.C. Chandor

Midnight in Paris
Written by Woody Allen

A Separation
Written by Asghar Farhadi

Thoughts:
As with Best Director, the Original Screenplay category could also get tricky. While it may seem that The Artist is the obvious choice, Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris is arguably his best film since 1994’s Bullets over Broadway and should take home the award with it’s charming and clever screenplay.

The Predicted Winner: Midnight in Paris
The Possible Spoiler: The Artist
Biggest Snub: Melancholia